Thursday, January 31, 2008

Cool Stocks for Summer

Blue star, the Air conditioner major has announced excellent third quarter results (net profit increase of 205% and sales increase of 40%) and Voltas also announced excellent third quarter results (NP growth of over 100%).

Blue star is an investor friendly company and is a sure Bonus candidate. One can buy both the stocks to have a cool summer :)

Note: As of this writing I have futures position in Voltas and I am recommeding Blue star from past one year.

Hotel Leela - Check in Time

Hotel leela has announced third quarter results and the net profit increased by 54% while sales increased by 44%. At a price of around 40, this is a good buy. With a strict stop loss of Rs 36, this could be a good trading pick as well.

Indian market is expected to rally as US markets rallied yesterday. This is the time to look at the quarterly results and clean up one's portfolio. The 'garden' should be cleaned by removing the weeds. Market conditions are not good and it is wise to ruthlessly sell the companies which have reported flat or negative growth in the latest quarter.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Recovery Expected

Fed in an unprecedented move, has again cut the interest rates yesterday to boost the US economy. World markets were waiting for this news and hence markets were choppy all over the world till yesterday. NOW, the news is out, what next?

From an Indian perspective, more FII money will enter into Indian markets, weak dollar means strong rupee and so for all companies dependent on dollar rates, this is a negative news. IT companies, already under tremendous pressure because of rupee appreciation will have to invent new strategies to cope up with problem.

Indian markets may stabilize in the coming days. There is Reliance power listing next week and today is the day of derivatives expiry. Budget expectations will start from next week. So there will be positive news in the coming days and hence market will become more tradable without huge swings in either direction. I guess market will recover today evening unless there is a surprise from Asian markets.


Voltas and Bombay Rayon may be good derivatives trading picks, only on the buy side. Voltas can be bought at around 200 with a strict stop loss at 190 for a short term target of 220. Bombay Rayon can be bought at around 285 with a stop loss at 275 for a target of 320.

Reliance Power IPO allotment is completed and those who have applied for 225 shares will get 15 shares.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Indian Hotels - Time to check in

Indian Hotels has announced excellenet results for the third quarter (52.9% increases in profit and 27% increase in sales). However there is increase in 'other income' in this quarter and so the profit based on sales growth is slightly lower.

If there is a big market crash in coming days, the stock may be available at around 100 and that is an excellent time to check in!

This is a blue chip stock and not a multibagger and safe bet for patient and conservative investors. if the market recovers, one can get a price of about 180 and if the Indian bull market continues this stock has a long term price target of around 400.

Other two stocks to watch are Ador Fontech and Godavari power and Ispat - both have announced excellent third quarter results. Fundamentally both are strong companies and one can watch these companies.

Note: Indian Hotels is part of my portfolio as of this writing. I may invest/trade in this stock.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Interest rate is the only interest of market participants

US markets rallied yesterday on hopes of further rate cuts from Fed which is unfortunately unlikely to happen. Market always breathes on hopes and expectations. When expectations, small or big are not fulfilled it crashes without waiting for anything.

Asian markets are also up thanks to the US market rally. Indian market is expected to open gap up but today there is RBI meeting and everybody is looking for cut in interest rates. More than anybody market wants cheap money. Cheap money spurs growth. Growth is the keyword for stock market.

Market is directionless with a downward bias. Looking for quick gains in such a market is foolish. It is better to watch the developments. If there is no rate cut in India and US, again there may be a significant correction in the market. It is definitely not the time to take the risk with hard earned money.

Lion hearted traders who are addicted to trade everyday may try their luck with Educomp and L&T as both companies have announced excellent third quarter results yesterday. If trades are not closed within end of day and with a strict stop loss, lions may very well lose their trading capital and will be out of the market soon.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

If I want to buy only one Smallcap stock in the current market

I am looking for a bargain. I want to buy one smallcap stock for a huge appreciation in the near future. I want a multi bagger for the next 2 years. I want a safe and sure bet. Do we have a stock fulfilling all the above criteria? Answer is a definitive Yes.

Bartronics is a screaming buy at the current price of about 200. It has announced its third quarter results and profit soared 217% Quarter - on - Quarter basis (1094.72 lacs vs 344.57 lacs )and 216% Year on Year basis (2823 lacs vs 891 lacs). Net sales increased 300% (Q-o-Q) and 258% (y-o-y). With the trailing EPS of 15.48, stock is trading at around Rs 220, P/E is just 14 for a niche company growing at over 100%. With an expected EPS of 20 for year ending March 2008, the stock is available with a P/E of just 10. Even if we take a conservative P/E of 20 for such a fast growing company with an expected EPS of around 20 for year ending March 2008, stock should trade at around 400.

Such stocks will suddenly attract market and FII attention and would appreciate within no time. I would not be surprised if the stock moves beyond Rs 1000 in the next 2 years and it would be prudent to hold at least 100 stocks in one's portfolio without worrying about the short term price fluctuations.

JM Emerging leaders fund has bought over 3 lac shares of Bartronics in December.

Note: I am holding this stock as of this writing and this stock is part of my portfolio.

Strategy for Jan Last week

US markets crashed on Friday which will definitely put the brakes on the relief rally of Indian markets. There may be a rate cut announcement by RBI on Tuesday which may be a small trigger to Indian markets. F&O settlement on Thursday will add additional pressure to the already tired market. As per CNBC reports, pay-ins and pay-outs of last 2 days will be clubbed on Monday. This may trigger some margin calls on Monday.

As per William J O’Neil (Author of best-selling investment books like How to make money in stocks and The successful Investor), the only time in an attempted rally you can conclude reliably that the trend has changed from down to up is from fourth day on. We have seen the market rally on 23rd and 25th with a downtrend in between and so the next week is crucial from the market trend perspective. If US and Asian markets cannot recover conclusively next week, there is a possibility of bear market for some time at least.

There are more negatives than positives. There is more uncertainty than conviction. It is better not to trade in this market for the next week. This is testing time and patience will definitely pay.

As far as long term investors are concerned, this week may throw another golden opportunity for buying. If there is a market crash, one can buy stocks like SBI, Axis bank, ICICI bank, Kotak bank, Indian bank, Vijaya bank , ING Vysya and Dena bank. Also stocks like L&T, BHEL, Power trading, MRPL, Hotel Leela, Indian Hotel, Bartronics, Voltas, Blue Star and Bombay Rayon Fashions are good if it is available 20% cheaper than current market price. Buying in a staggered manner is recommended.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Bombay Rayon Fashions - Costume for all Seasons

Quarterly results of Bombay Rayon Fashions are excellent. One can buy the stock at the current price of 310 for short, medium and long term:)

Bombay Rayon manufactures woven, dyed and printed fabrics for apparel and furnishing applications and also readymade apparels like designer shirts.

Many brokerage houses have come up with research reports with an approximate price target of Rs 600.

For traders Educomp, L&T, Axis Bank stocks are safe trading bets for today. With the prevailing market condition, trades shall be done with strict stop loss and should be suqared off on the same day.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Markets Crashed, Dreams Crushed

Dreams of millions of investors crushed in two days, thanks to the Indian stock market.

Economy is strong, our markets are world class, we are not dependent on western markets - well, one need not pay for the free advices like this. There were no statements/actions either from Finance minister or from SEBI after the market crash on Monday. No measures taken to maintain the health of our stock market. See the way US Government has reacted. They have cut interest rates ten days in advance to save the country from recession. Action when it is required. Right action at the right time . US market would have crashed had Fed not taken this decision yesterday, just before opening of the US markets.

We are Indians. We either cry for the spilt milk or console ourselves after the event. We are not capable of setting the directions. Western rule had made us mere followers rather than leaders. We wear Dhotis and Kurtas and cover ourselves with a shawl to show that we are Indians wherein we get our education from Harvard or Cambridge. We say that Indian economy is different but apply the US or UK tax slab to Indians.

We need to change our thinking. We need to be leaders. Not tomorrow... We need this change right now.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Reliance Money Recommendations

During November 2007 Reliance money has recommended to buy the stocks of Shri lakshmi Cotsyn at a price of Rs 150 with a target price of Rs 250. Read the recommendation “We expect SLCL to deliver strong growth in the next 2 years with the completion of three phase expansion program. Buy at Rs 150 with a target price of Rs 240". As I am a customer of Reliance money, I have these details with me.

Reliance Capital during Jan 2007 has sold 1,00,000 shares of this company at a price of Rs 167.50!!!! (The copy of Business Standard with this information is available with me)

Inference is left to investors!

Note: Reliance Money is the financial services division of Reliance Capital.

Ugly Face of Indian Stock market

Mayhem, Carnage, Blood bath, Turmoil, Crash, Steep fall - even a kid will tell these are synonyms for Indian stock market's current status! Market is crashing like a pack of cards with no light seen at the end of the tunnel.

Is some vested interests pushed the market to dizzy heights to make one of the biggest IPO's in the Indian history sail through successfully? Only time will tell the truth. Again, during the listing of this IPO, one should carefully watch the market as again these vested interests may push the market by buying index stocks. Also, one cannot rule out the grey market operators behind this carnage to grab huge chunk of retail quota of this IPO through grey market (grey market price has already come down significantly for this stock).

Market pundits are giving there own reasons for the market crash. TV Channels are flashing the message that market is crashed because of US recession worries. Absurd!
US market worries are looming from last one year and this cannot be a trigger for the fall.

No one knows what will happen today. As US market was closed yesterday, there is no direction from the bog brother. Asian markets are trading lower as of this writing.

It is better to stay away from the market (especially from trading perspective) unless one is lion hearted. I beleive this is a good opportunity to buy frontline stocks during this correction.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Reliance Power IPO - Whats My Pie?

As per the NSE data, retail quota is oversubscribed by 15 times. This means all investors who have applied for 225 shares will get a minimum of 15 shares. However, there is a small catch. NSE data is never correct and will never be updated after the last day and so there is no way to find out whether this data is correct till the allotment is finalized. So, we need to keep our fingers crossed till Feb second week.

The participation from high net worth individuals (HNI), mutual funds and institutions was very good and hence we need not worry about the demand for the stock in the near future. This is not a share to sell unless you want to enjoy the feeling of getting the quick buck! This stock is a must to "power" one's portfolio in the long term.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Investment picks in the current market

Yesterday there was a market crash and market may fall further. This is a golden opportunity for investors to buy fundamentally good stocks.

Axix bank and South Indian bank have announced excellent third quarter results. ICICI bank is in momentum because of the demerger news. All three are excellent buys in banking space.

Texmaco has announced excellent third quarter results and a good buy at the current price.

Reliance Power IPO

For retail investors 6,84,00,000 number of shares are offered. On first day there was a demand for 56208630 shared (0.8 % subscription) from retail investors. This is as per NSE data but this data is never correct! So we can safely assume that retail quota is fully subscribed on day one itself!

The offer price is Rs 405 - 450. The market lot is 15 shares. Retail investors will get a discount of Rs 20 per share. This means Retail investors can apply for a maximum of 225 shares (after adjusting for the discount). Retail investors have the option of part payment in which case we need to pay Rs 25600 during application. In case of full payment, we need to pay Rs 94500.

Looking at the current trend, the retail quota will be oversubscribed around 10 times which means all of us can get at least 15 shares if we apply for all 215 share we are eligible!

The listing price is expected to be in the range of 800-900. So, one can pocket a profit of around Rs 6000.

Good luck!

Monday, January 7, 2008

Buy Kohinoor Broadcasting

One can buy Kohinoor broadcasting at a price of around 20 for quick gains. keep a strict stop loss of 18 in case of large quantity buying.The price may shoot upto 40 in short term. The quartrely results are good. The company is going to acquire Tagore Theatres at valuation of Rs 100 crore.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

What is happening in Geometric counter?

There is a technical pullback rally in most of the IT counters. Godrej investments pvt Ltd had bought 3200000 shares of Geometric on 31st. This means promoters are bullish about the prospects of this company. Few months back Aztec bought a huge quantity of Aztec software when the stock was available at around 50 (Now it is 80).

Technical charts for Geometric have given a short term buy signal clearly. I guess stock is heading to 130 levels soon.

Fundamentally, I don't know the latest developments. Last quarter result was not good (38% decrease in net profit compared to previous quarter). Watch the counter from purely a trading perspective.

Face value of this stock is 2. It has support at 70 and resistance at 130. 20 day moving average line has clearly cut the 50 day moving average line thus giving a clear short term buy signal. But 50 and 100 or 50 and 200 day moving average lines still have not given the long term buy signal. 5, 8 and 13 day moving average lines have given clear short tem buy signal.

Investment Picks for 2008

I have listed the secotrs I am bullish on for year 2008 in my previous blog. Some of the stocks which I think are worth considering from investment perspective from these sectors are listed below.

1. Media and Entertainment (Dish TV, Zee Entertainment, Entertainment Network, NDTV, TV Today network)

2. Power (Bharat Bijlee, Power Grid, Techno Electric, BHEL, Reliance Power, NTPC, Neyveli Lignite, Easun Reyrole, Numeric Power)

3. Oil - MRPL, Reliance Petro, Bongaigon Refinery

4. Engineering and infrastructure(Engineers India, Punj Lyod, L&T, Blue star, Voltas, Lyod engineering, Mcnally Bharat, Crompton Greaves)

5 Banks (South Indian bank, Karnataka bank, City Union Bank, J&K bank, Kotak bank, ICICI, Yes bank - I am bullish on private sector banks)

Sensex Target for year 2008

I know it is little too foolish to predict the sensex. I have seen many market pundits failing again and again in predicting the sensex.

Having said this, it is not a rocket science to predict sensex target. Just like predicting the price of a stock, we can arrive at the sensex target also. If there are no unexpected developments, we can more or less predict the sensex target either by fundamental analysis (by multiplying the average EPS of sensex stocks with P/E) or by using Elliott waves.

Another point we need to observe this year is political stability and upcoming election in India. By looking at Gujarat and Himachal results, one could see the sentiments against the current ruling party and hence there is a possibility of BJP coming to power in the centre. This will be good news for the market as the economy is in auto pilot mode and the current Government failed to utilize this golden opportunity. It is prudent to invest in good public sector companies as the new Government may divest its stake in public sector companies.

My sensex target for year 2008 will be 30,000 at higher side and 14000 at lower side. I would be disappointed if sensex does not cross 28000 this year. There will be wide fluctuations and traders should take extreme care while trading with leveraged money. For patient investors this will be a good year again! I am bullish on following sectors for this year.

1. Media and Entertainment
2. Banking (especially private banks)
3. Power
4. Engineering and Infrastucture
5. Oil companies

IT companies are currently in a technical pull back and nothing has changed fundamentally. It will be difficult to predict the trend for IT companies but I feel the downward risk is limited unless there is a huge Rupee appreciation. Why take the risk by investing in IT companies when other sectors are green? :)